Today, as part of the opening of the MacWorld, Steve Jobs will hold his traditional keynote at the Moscone Center in San Francisco. And I’m finding myself posting the third article about Apple’s upcoming phone in a row. Why? Because I believe it’s going to be released today. Second, because it’s going to be big, very big.

It’s unconfirmed directly by Apple of course, but Think Secret gives the Apple phone release today a 90% chance of probability. This isn’t speculation anymore, as everybody from Stock Markets to technology leaders is watching Apple today.

But why now? Why do we all think Apple is ready? A phone from Apple has been on the wish list of many avid Mac users for years. And dreams about PDAs, game consoles and tablet PCs from Apple seem never to subside in the blogosphere. Apple is one of those brands that has replaced Santa Clause from our childhood. You really, really want to be a good kid to get what you’re wishing for. Apple’s brand is iconic in a true sense. People watch Apple’s activities because it is this one technology brand, that is able to change our lives. We’ve seen it happening before.

There are a number of factors, which I think are indicating that the time is right now, that not only Apple but also the world is ready for Apple entering the phone market.

1. Apple has now the technology and the experience now to manufacture extremely small high-tech devices. First there was the iPod Mini. Then came the iPod Nano. And it was as if someone at Apple had said “Let’s try making it as little and thin as possible”. To me, the Nano was a test for Apple to reduce an iPod’s size, while keeping up its entire functionality. Now add phone technology to it, and you’ll still get a slim and small phone — with a built in iPod.
2. It’s not unprepared and out of the blue. Apple has taken considerably long to prepare this step, and they made a serious effort in considering all odds and factors. They’ve been talking to Google, as well as with Motorola, Cingular and other network providers. Leander Khaney pointed out there has been a historically similar case, when Apple teamed up with Sony engineers to get more experienced in building their first super slim line of titanium PowerBooks.
3. Ever since he returned to the board at Apple, Steve Jobs had been asked in interviews and during executive meetings, what he was thinking of a revival of the Newton, which had been the world’s first PDA, several years before the Palm Pilot hit the light of the day. (If you remember, the Newton was the beloved project of its former CEO Sculley, who had fired Jobs.) It was no secret that Jobs wasn’t fond if the idea of a Newton revival. But he also made very good points about why not: The technology wasn’t there yet to provide a decent user experience, he said, and existing PDAs on the market are not working right. Screens, resolution and processing power were all too little, and besides, the PDA market was small, hard to expand on, and it wasn’t really what people wanted. Of course, the latter statement wasn’t reflecting the wish list of forementioned avid Mac users, but Jobs was right. Eight, five years ago, it simply wasn’t the right time for anything like a PDA or small tablet device from Apple. And the question whether people were really going to buy something like that, was a valid point. Another reason Jobs repeatedly stated was, that Apple is thinking PDAs are not what it is going to be about in the future. It’s communication devices like cell phones. With that, he gave the first hints to an Apple phone release in the upcoming time.
4. They wanted to come up with something ground-breaking, which will have a similar impact on our lives like the iPod had. And you can’t do that with just a nicer or bigger screen, or with hot little features like built in GPS. What Jobs repeatedly said was, cell phones are too hard to use. So watch out for a brand new operating system, which will beat Symbian and Windows Mobile by simplicity, elegance and ease of use.

iTunes made the introduction of the iPod a success. Similarly to iTunes, it might be possible Apple is again putting its money on a more seamless integration with computers, Windows and Mac alike, by providing better user experience overall. I really think ‘user experience’ is the key element here for Apple.

If you throw a stone into a pond of water, it will create symmetric ripples. If you throw multiple stones in the same point at the same time, those ripples will run into another and create just disturbed water. It is pretty much the same in markets, particularly in the consumers technology market, where new products are introduced by the minute. And each one wants to call for your attention.

Apple had to wait for the right timing. Until it was ready, with its experience, technological capabilities, production lines and a market that’s ripe and ready for a phone from Apple. I’m sure they know what they’re doing, and they haven’t been waiting for no reason. We will know more in a couple of hours.